Basil’s power declines; Mahinda promoting Namal for leadership

Diwali, the festival of lights widely observed by Hindus the world over, turned out to be an unexpected tribute to Anthonipillai Emmanuel Manoharan, the Sri Lankan pop singer and composer of the Baila hit Suranganita Maalu Genaava.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, flew to what is one of the world’s elevated battlegrounds to celebrate the religious festival with Indian troops (Jawans). He dipped into a small plastic box and fed sweets into their mouths with his own hands.  All others sang in chorus the favourite number of the late 1970s in Sinhala. The pronunciation of some words sounded different but the large gathering in uniform, under a camouflaged tent, was unmistakable.

Premier Modi wore a thick jerkin, like the military officers with him, to overcome the cold. He donned a military hat and a pair of pants. The Indian Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft that flew him lay parked a little distance away. The venue was Kargil at an altitude of 8,000 feet. It is near the Line of Control that demarcates the India and Pakistan administered portions of Kashmir. It has often been the site of skirmishes. The worst of these was the Kargil war in May-June 1999.

Manoharan’s song came to be widely acclaimed after he introduced Tamil words to the song in a mix with Sinhala. It took Tamil Nadu by storm. It said Suranganeeta Meenu Konduvanden or brought fish for Surangani. It was a few years after Radio Ceylon was renamed as Sri Lanka Broadcasting Coporation (SLBC) and broadcasts of the song from Colombo were much sought after. So much so, other versions of the song emerged. One is a Goan konkeni version and another was a main song from the film Avar Enakke Sontham or he is entirely owned by me starring Shivaji Ganeshan. There is a downside to all this.

In the years past, successive Sri Lanka governments possessed an important tool in the form of Radio Ceylon  which had an outreach to most parts of Tamil Nadu. It was not only the music which was broadcast. The messages that emanated, including news bulletins, were credible and contributed to opinion making in the southern Indian state. Alas, this was not put to positive use to build goodwill and greater rapport. Over a period, separatist ideals took root and the population there turned the most hostile to Sri Lanka.

Decades later came the worst-ever economic crisis. India became the country to extend the largest volume of financial support. The government in Tamil Nadu chipped in by sending convoys with food and other essentials. The government is now engaged in the tedious process of debt restructuring so it could be the early recipient of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Extended Fund Facility of US$ 2.9 billion under a 48-month arrangement. There are strong indications that Sri Lanka will not be able to avail itself of the funds this year. The earliest prospects, diplomatic sources said yesterday, would be March next year. Here again, it would be dependent on conclusive discussions with debtors, a prospect that remains distant. Fears are mounting that it could go beyond this time frame despite redoubled efforts.

Debt restructuring

According to the same sources, talks with India for example, are mired in an issue concerning different data. New Delhi is learnt to have pointed out that material made available so far has given rise to several questions. Hence, India has sought clarification. This position has been pointed out to Senior Presidential Advisor, Sagala Ratnayake, when he was in New Delhi last week to discuss matters related to debt restructuring. A source familiar with the goings on said the further there are delays, the more it would hurt efforts to reverse the deteriorating trend in the economy. A diplomatic source explained the latest position with India: “Bi-lateral talks were held with the Sri Lanka Government on September 16 and October 25 in Colombo. The main reason is the question of data that applies to India. “We want to better understand Sri Lanka’s approach. Of course, certain things are confidential. The information is mainly to help India make specific decisions.”

Another crucial discussion of Sri Lanka’s creditors,” the President’s Office said on Friday “is scheduled to be held on November 3.”  A statement added: “Debt restructuring in Sri Lanka is on the agenda to be discussed at length during this discussion. Chief of Staff and Senior Advisor to the President on National Security Mr Sagala Ratnayake met with the outgoing IMF Resident Representative for Sri Lanka  Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan and the incoming IMF Resident Representative for Sri Lanka Ms Sarwat Jahan at the Presidential Secretariat yesterday (27). The three-member IMF team met with Mr Sagala Ratnayake and exchanged views on prior action and debt restructuring.  Mr Ratnayake assured the IMF team that he would brief President Ranil Wickremesinghe on the matters that were discussed at this meeting and convey his response to them.”

Formal talks with China are yet to begin in view of the just concluded Communist Party sessions in Beijing. Finance Minister, Liu Kun, who was the last Chinese dignitary to speak with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, has since been removed from office. The President revealed his conversation at a public meeting in Siyambalanduwa but did not disclose details. According to a diplomatic source, China had offered another loan to repay what is due instead of re-scheduling the debt. Government officials, however, did not confirm this. There is still uncertainty over when the dialogue proper with China would begin. A report from Bloomberg on October 22 gives an idea of the situation:

China’s Communist Party congress signalled a possible shake-up of the nation’s economic policy team at a time of heightened concern about the world’s second-largest economy.

“Premier Li Keqiang, 67, economic czar Liu He, 70, central bank governor Yi Gang, 64, Finance Minister Liu Kun, 65, and banking regulator Guo Shuqing, 66, were dropped off a list of full or alternate members of the Central Committee — the country’s most senior officials and political elites — according to official releases published Saturday at the end of the party’s congress.

“While that suggests they may retire, being left off the lists doesn’t automatically mean the officials will leave their government posts. Those positions may only become clearer in March 2023, when the national legislature meets.

The possible changes to the policy team come amid heightened uncertainty about China’s growth outlook as Covid lockdowns and the worst housing market downturn on record batter the economy. Gross domestic product growth is forecast to slow to just 3.3% this year, which would be the weakest pace in more than four decades barring 2020’s Covid slump.”

There have also been no formal talks with Japan so far over debt restructuring. The only exception has been soundings made to Japanese officials on the side lines of the IMF Governors meeting in Washington DC in May. Here again, diplomatic sources said soundings were made from Japanese officials over matters related to restructuring.

Other than the restructuring of debt, the IMF has already handed down a list of measures to resuscitate the economy. This is by means of introducing a budget that would generate income. President Wickremesinghe, who is Finance Minister, will introduce a budget next month for this purpose. Another is the introduction of the Inland Revenue (Amendment) Bill to raise taxes.