Element of uncertainty over local council elections in March next year

An element of uncertainty still shrouds the prospects of local council elections next year, though paradoxical enough, legal requirements strongly weigh in favour of its conduct.

The Election Commission would have hoped that a final ruling on the matter would come from the Supreme Court, the country’s highest judicial institution. This was based on two petitions filed by opposition political groups seeking an order on the Election Commission to issue a declaration to conduct local elections before March 20. Petitioners in one application were Samagi Jana Balavegaya  (SJB) General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara, and Prof. G.L. Peiris, who now heads the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) faction Nidhas Janatha Sabhawa.  The other is from Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera, Lakshman Kiriella (SJB), Abraham Sumanthiran (Tamil National Alliance), and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, who heads another faction of the SLPP. Among those cited as respondents are Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena and Election Commission Chairman Nimal G. Punchihewa. The SC took up the matter last Friday and put off till January 18 the hearing of the petitions.

This is amidst a deadline of December last week set by the Election Commission for an official announcement on the date of the local council elections. Instead of waiting for an SC determination, there is no barrier now for the Commission to go ahead.

There are two key aspects that make the impending local government elections significant. It would be the first litmus test for President Ranil Wickremesinghe-led SLPP government. Its popularity hit a new low after ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s mismanagement spawned an unprecedented economic crisis. The ripples caused by it are still being felt with the people being burdened by mounting living costs and thrust into a multitude of other difficulties. Two: It would also be a test of strength for the SLPP which has splintered into at least three different groups so far. A desperate move is being made now to resurrect the party for a future presidential election.

First to the challenge before President Wickremesinghe. He declared earlier that the government plans to set up Jana Sabhas or People’s Councils. Two prime movers of this project are former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, now head of the National Movement for Social Justice (NMSJ), and Victor Ivan, a onetime Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) activist and later Editor of the Ravaya newspaper. They were invited to address the Cabinet of Ministers at a regular weekly meeting on the merits of these new bodies which were meant to replace local councils. Legislation to set up the proposed new councils was to be modelled taking into consideration the Sabhas existent in India. Since then, however, the move has not gained much traction.

Later, President Wickremesinghe saw to the appointment of a Delimitation Commission headed by former Election Commission Chief Mahinda Deshapriya. The appointment was to prune down the number of wards in local councils and halve the number of members from some 8,000. Though the move was originally believed to delay the conduct of local polls, the task of the Commission is now over and will not conflict with it, Deshapriya told the Sunday Times. More on his comments in later paragraphs.

In this backdrop, SLPP parliamentarian Premnath C. Dolawatte, who has been strongly supportive of President Wickremesinghe’s actions, proposed the introduction of a youth quota of representation. This was like the present 25 percent quota that is allotted for women representation. Such a move would have meant new legislation being introduced in Parliament. This gave rise to speculation that the move, if pursued, would also further delay the local polls. This, however, did not become a reality.

President Wickremesinghe is said to be not in favour of early local council elections. This is based on his view that the ongoing economic crisis would have to be overcome before such a task is undertaken. He is said to fear there would be deep divisions that could be caused within the ruling party by early local polls. This is whilst some senior SLPP members say that President Wickremesinghe’s thrust would be to embark on an aggressive economic recovery programme and seek a mandate at a presidential election. “He has hinted at this on occasions,” one of them said.

Of course, such a move hinges on the all-important task of having the International Monetary Fund (IMF) release the Extended Fund Facility of US $ 2.9 billion over a period of 48 months. The past many months and weeks have seen government officials and politicians waxing eloquent on instalments from the EFF being available by December. They have now put off their forecast to January next year and will continue their guessing game thereafter too. However, the fact remains that the matter could be delayed till the first quarter of next year, according to well-informed sources.

Despite the existence of two schools of thought over the local elections, it is highly unlikely the SLPP leaders will make the issue a confrontational one with President Wickremesinghe. Besides the absence of a robust leader in their ranks, the President’s assertiveness and tough positions on some issues have been the main cause. As a UNPer who is closely watching the scene observes, “he (the President) has not been giving in every time there is a demand. He has so far struck what seems a balance. Don’t forget he holds the key on many issues.”